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Wall Street / Economic Predictions |
Source & Date |
Accuracy |
Comments |
| US economy is not strong and housing market will crash and we will have high unemployment |
December 16, 2006 Fox News Debate Again on August 8, 2007 |
True |
Uncannily Accurate
It is worth noting that Peter Schiff was ridiculed by experts and he showed great courage. We do not believe it was a lucky guess. He did see signs that others missed. The video shows how right he was and how wrong the other so called "experts" are. To his credit most economists and experts ignored the signs until the markets crashed in summer of 2008. Two experts who warned about the economic crisis before Peter Schiff are Dean Baker's warning in July 21, 2005 Med Jones' (US Economic Risks June, 2, 2006). More detailed predictions can be found at: |
| Interest rates will go higher and inflation will go higher |
December 16, 2006 Fox News Debate |
False | Although he is right on his data of saving and mortgage he was off in his timing. Interested rate went lower in 2007, 2008, 2009 and there was deflation. Eventually we had inflation in late 2011. So he seem to be right on the trend wrong on the timing with 2-4 years. |
| Inflation in 2008 and 2009 | False | Deflation in 2008 & 2009 | |
| At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value in 2010 |
Source US News |
False |
12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008 Wrong about hyperinflation Wrong about the dollar Wrong about commodities except for gold Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen Wrong about foreign equities Wrong in timing Wrong in risk management Wrong in buy and hold thesis Wrong on decoupling Wrong on China Wrong on US treasuries Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic Source US News |
| US dollars will go all the way to zero and gold will go at least $5,000 an ounce. |
Sep 9, 2009 Daily Finance |
False | |
| US Equity Markets Will Crash | True | ||
| US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation) like Zimbabwe | False |
Dollar value declined, but no were close to to the
expectation and Hyperinflation did not occur. If you
invested based on this theory you would have lost a lot of
money Source: Mike Shedlock. Response to Mish's Criticism by Peter Schiff |
|
|
Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no
exit strategy. |
False |
Foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and
US dollar did not decline as much. Peter Schiff Investment did that and they are down 40% |
|
| We Probably Won't Make It To 2012 |
Aug 26,
2010 Video To be determined |
To be determined | |
| US markets will crash like dominos so many things are bound to happen in 2011 The dollar will collapse and we will see a greater economic disaster |
|
To be determined | |
| When the dollar stops rallying it is going to fall like a stone |
|
False | If investors shorted the dollar they would have lost |
| Buy commodities |
Jan 12,
2010 CNBC |
True | Commodities were up. If investors bought commodities they would have won |
| Buy Gold |
Jan 12,
2010 CNBC |
True | |
| US Economy will only get worse |
Jan 12,
2010 CNBC |
False | In the video, he argues semantics. The fact is the US economy recovered in 2010 and added Jobs in 2011. |
| Foreign stock, gold and commodities to outperform US stocks |
Jan 12,
2010 CNBC |
True | |
| US stock are heading a lot lower in 2009, 2010 and 2011 as well |
Jan 02, 2009 Bloomberg |
False | Stocks recovered during 2009 and 2010. |
|
Schiff predicts Nasdaq 500 and Dow
4000 |
2002 Video |
False |
The S&P (.INX) went from 1054 in May
of 2002 (the date of the interview) to 1561 in Oct. 2007, a
48% gain and the Dow (.DJI) rose 40%. - Source: Todd Sullivan Seeking Alpha. "had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered." |
How accurate are Peter Schiff's economic predictions? Can they be relied on for investing?
Well, if you followed Peter Schiff's advice about the housing bubble and gold you could have made a lot money or at least saved yourself a lot of losses. On the other hand if you followed his other predictions you would have lost a lot of money.
According to some of Schiff’s own clients, portfolios invested with Schiff were down anywhere from 40 - 70%. Although he was right on the US debt, but he missed the EU debt crisis. Source Seeking Alpha
Research conclusion: Even if an economist is an expert in one sector or area, and was right once or several times, the complexity and number of variables in the economy make it almost impossible to be right all the time. So the value of these predictions is just to become aware of different risks. We recommend that you follow your own conclusion rather than theirs.
Compare Peter Schiff's Predictions to
Economic predictions from the world's top experts on the financial crisis
Dean Baker's
Predictions
Med Jones
Predictions
Nouriel Roubini's
Predictions
The Rise & Fall of Financial Assets
Knowledge
@
Wharton
University
Wall Street
Economic
&
Financial
Research
London
School of Economics
Financial Journalism Ethics
City
University
London
Challenges of Financial
Journalism