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Who Predicted the Financial Crisis

Peter Schiff Bio - Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions - Economic Forcast - Economic Outlook - Accuracy of Predictions

The Accuracy and Reliability of Peter Schiff's Predictions
Can they be relied on for investment decisions?

Peter Schiff Predictions

Peter Schiff Bio - Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions

Peter Schiff, CEO & Chief Global Strategist

Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, economy, real estate, the mortgage meltdown, credit crunch, subprime debacle, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned. He has been quoted in many of the nation's leading newspapers, His best-selling book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" was published by Wiley & Sons in February of 2007. His second book, "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down" was published by Wiley & Sons in October of 2008.

Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. He is also a contributing commentator for Newsweek International and served as an economic advisor to the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign. He holds FINRA Series 4, 7, 24, 27, 53, 55, 63 & 65 licenses.

Sources: europac.net

Politics: Conservative - Republican

Note: If readers have comments or corrections, please email them to research {at} economicpredictions.org

Peter Schiff Bio - Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions - Economic Forcast - Economic Outlook - Accuracy of Predictions

Peter Schiff's Predictions
 

Wall Street / Economic Predictions

Source & Date

Accuracy

Comments

US economy is not strong and housing market will crash and we will have high unemployment December 16, 2006
Fox News Debate

Again on

August 8, 2007
Fox News

True Uncannily Accurate

It is worth noting that Peter Schiff was ridiculed by experts and he showed great courage. We do not believe it was a lucky guess. He did see signs that others missed. The video shows how right he was and how wrong the other so called "experts" are.

To his credit most economists and experts ignored the signs until the markets crashed in summer of 2008.

Two experts who warned about the economic crisis before Peter Schiff are

Dean Baker's warning in July 21, 2005

Med Jones' (US Economic Risks June, 2, 2006).

More detailed predictions can be found at:

Interest rates will go higher and inflation will go higher December 16, 2006
Fox News Debate
False Although he is right on his data of saving and mortgage he was off in his timing. Interested rate went lower in 2007, 2008, 2009 and there was deflation. Eventually we had inflation in late 2011. So he seem to be right on the trend wrong on the timing with 2-4 years.
Inflation in 2008 and 2009   False Deflation in 2008 & 2009
At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value in 2010

Source US News

False 12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
Wrong about hyperinflation
Wrong about the dollar
Wrong about commodities except for gold
Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
Wrong about foreign equities
Wrong in timing
Wrong in risk management
Wrong in buy and hold thesis
Wrong on decoupling
Wrong on China
Wrong on US treasuries
Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

Source US News

US dollars will go all the way to zero and gold will go at least $5,000 an ounce. Sep 9, 2009
Daily Finance
False  
US Equity Markets Will Crash   True  
US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation) like Zimbabwe   False Dollar value declined, but no were close to to the expectation and Hyperinflation did not occur. If you invested based on this theory you would have lost a lot of money

Source: Mike Shedlock. Response to Mish's Criticism by Peter Schiff

Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.
  False Foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and US dollar did not decline as much.

Peter Schiff Investment did that and they are down 40%
We Probably Won't Make It To 2012 Aug 26, 2010
Video
To be determined
To be determined  
US markets will crash like dominos so many things are bound to happen in 2011 The dollar will collapse and we will see a greater economic disaster

Dec 31, 2010

CNBC
To be determined  
When the dollar stops rallying it is going to fall like a stone

Jan 12, 2010
CNBC

 
False If investors shorted the dollar they would have lost
Buy commodities Jan 12, 2010
CNBC
True Commodities were up. If investors bought commodities they would have won
Buy Gold Jan 12, 2010
CNBC
True  
US Economy will only get worse Jan 12, 2010
CNBC
False In the video, he argues semantics. The fact is the US economy recovered in 2010 and added Jobs in 2011.
Foreign stock, gold and commodities to outperform US stocks Jan 12, 2010
CNBC
True  
US stock are heading a lot lower in 2009, 2010 and 2011 as well Jan 02, 2009
Bloomberg
False Stocks recovered during  2009 and 2010.
Schiff predicts Nasdaq 500 and Dow 4000
 
2002
Video
False The S&P (.INX) went from 1054 in May of 2002 (the date of the interview) to 1561 in Oct. 2007, a 48% gain and the Dow (.DJI) rose 40%. - Source:
Todd Sullivan Seeking Alpha. "had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered."

Peter Schiff Bio - Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions - Economic Forcast - Economic Outlook - Accuracy of Predictions

How accurate are Peter Schiff's economic predictions? Can they be relied on for investing?

Well, if you followed Peter Schiff's advice about the housing bubble and gold you could have made a lot money or at least saved yourself a lot of losses. On the other hand if you followed his other predictions you would have lost a lot of money.

According to some of Schiff’s own clients, portfolios invested with Schiff were down anywhere from 40 - 70%.  Although he was right on the US debt, but he missed the EU debt crisis. Source Seeking Alpha

Research conclusion: Even if an economist is an expert in one sector or area, and was right once or several times, the complexity and number of variables in the economy make it almost impossible to be right all the time. So the value of these predictions is just to become aware of different risks. We recommend that you follow your own conclusion rather than theirs.

Peter Schiff Bio - Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions - Economic Forcast - Economic Outlook - Accuracy of Predictions

Compare Peter Schiff's Predictions to

Dean Baker Predictions

Med Jones Predictions

Nouriel Roubini Predictions

 

Wall Street Economists - Creative Commons Free Content License - Who Predicted The Financial Crisis?

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Dean Baker's Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions -Dean Baker Bio
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Med Jones Predictions -  Wrong Economic Predictions and Correct Economic Predictions - Med Jones Biography
Med Jones
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Nouriel Roubini Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Correct Economic Predictions - Nouriel Roubini Bio
Nouriel Roubini's
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Peter Schiff Predictions - Wrong Economic Predictions and Right Economic Predictions - Peter Schiff Bio
Peter Schiff's
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Book: Bubbles Booms and Busts - The Rise and Fall of Financial Assets
The Rise & Fall of Financial Assets


Knowledge
@
Wharton
University

Who Predicted the Financial Crisis - Who Predicted the Economic Crisis
Wall Street
Economic
&
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Research


London
School of Economics
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City
University
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Wall Street Economists - Creative Commons Free Content License - Who Predicted The Financial Crisis?